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A
Literature Review and Quantitative Analysis of VICP Compensated Autism Cases

Literature
Review

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“In the Vaccine-Autism Debate, What
can Parents Believe?” by Jenny McCarthy.

I
think this article shall not be used as a creditable source while arguing
either for or against the issue of autism.  The argument of this author is not, to any
degree, valid or credible. Aside from the lack of professional credential of
the author, she also lack a general understanding on the subject of vaccine
related autism as well as the authority of the medical research and reports.
She also displayed insufficient logic skills and made incoherent arguments.

The
author, Jenny McCarthy is an “Author, model and autism activist”. She has spent
two years at Southern Illinois University and does not hold a bachelor’s
degree. So her academic authority on the issue at hand was certainly dwarfed by
the collective effort of the Center for Disease Control and Prevention.

The
author is certainly under-informed on the correlation between autism and
vaccination. She has misjudged the authority of peer-reviewed medical journals.
In the paragraph 5 of her article, Miss. McCarthy claims

“For
some reason, parents aren’t being told that this “new” information about Dr.
Wakefield isn’t a medical report, but merely the allegations of a single
British journalist named Brian Deer. Why does one journalist’s accusations
against Dr. Wakefield now mean the vaccine-autism debate is over?”

Journalist
Brian Deer has won the British Press Awards twice, the highest award in British
journalism. And the article he published exposing Dr. Wakefield of manipulating
data is published in the British Medical Journal, a weekly peer-reviewed medical
journal and one of the world’s
oldest general medical journals. Its authority in the medical field is certain unquestionable.

Her lack of logical competency could also be
reflected through comment: “I know children regress after vaccination because
it happened to my own son.” (the correlation between vaccine and autism is not
addressed for the sake of the objectivity of this sentence analysis). Because
there are children in the U.S. who are vaccinated and did not develop autism,
her argument is invalid.

“Concerns about Autism.” Centers for
Disease Control and Prevention

I found the second article published by the CDC
very convincing to the under-informed general public. It listed the vaccines
that are proven to be safe to use and also attached multiple medical reports in
order to convince the general population. With the numerus medical
peer-reviewed-journals presented on the United States Centers for Disease
Control and Prevention, concerned parents would again be reassured of the
safety of the vaccine.

However, CDC is certainly playing a dangerous
dice game with the devil. Since 1989, a program called Vaccine Injury Compensation
Program under the HHS has been quietly paying victims of vaccine related brain
diseases off, including autism. In a recent report conducted by Pace University
Law School in 2011, researchers (Holland, Conte, Krakow &Colin, 2011)
pointed out:

“This study suggests that compensated cases of
vaccine-induced encephalopathy associated with autism started from the
inception of the VICP in 1989 and have continued at least through 2010. Of
these eighty-three compensated cases including autism…”

A more interesting correlation in the same
report also indicates that:

“All of the cases of vaccine-induced
encephalopathy associated with autism noted in the Table of VICP-Compensated
Claims above were the result of combination vaccines – MMR, DTP or DTaP”

The subject of combination vaccine related
autism certainly deserved more attention. However, the report posted on CDC’s
website on MMR and autism is conducted between 1991 and 1998 in Denmark where “This study provides strong evidence against the
hypothesis that MMR vaccination causes autism.” (Madsen et al., 2002), certainly does not represent the United
States population nor up to date with the Holland, 2011 findings.

Although the article by Holland, Conte, Krakow ,
2011, “Unanswered
Questions from the Vaccine Injury Compensation Program: A Review of Compensated
Cases of Vaccine-Induced Brain Injury” is on public domain, CDC has chosen not to share the
findings on their website nor inform the readers of the potential correlations
between the MMR, DTP or DTaP AND autism.

“The Next Chapter in the Vaccine
Autism Story Begins Tomorrow” by Ginger Taylor.

This article has presented its facts in an
organized fashion and is very objective. This article has listed testimonies of
medical professionals whose children have suffered from plausible vaccine
related autism, as well as an official letter from HRSA admitting a link to
autism. It has certainly provided enough evidence for a possible hypothesis for
a correlation between vaccine and autism.

 

Prior
Knowledge before Researching

I
knew that some people in the United States are skeptical about vaccination in
fear of causing autism. But I thought it was just a group of uneducated and
uninformed paranoid parents. I also firmly believe in the authority of Chinese
CDC and United States CDC. I believe they will not give out nationwide vaccine
without checking the lethality and the harm of the vaccine. The vaccination
program have been going on for so long, the method should be perfected to a
certain degree and even if there are accidents in the past, the probability
should be reduced to very small comparing to the risk of not being vaccine and
got those life threatening diseases.

Discussion
and Quantitative Analysis of the Significance of the Compensated VICP Autism
Cases

Since
the documentation of VICP of 1989, 83 cases of vaccine related autism have been
reported. According to 2014 CDC report Birth and Natality, 3,985,924 infants
have been born. In 1989, 3,884,000 infants are born in the United States. So it
is safe to estimate that around four million infants would have been born since
1989 to 2014.

The
vaccinated rate of children from 19-35 month in the United States in 1994 is
around 70 percent and by 2013 it has reached 80 percent National Immunization
Survey by CDC. In this rough quantitative analysis I would like to use 70
percent as the national immunization rate.

The
amount of infants in the United States per year from 1990 to 2015: 4,000,000.

The
mean percentage of infants vaccinated: 70%

The
total amount of infants exposed to vaccine in the US from 1990 to 2015:

4,000,000(Infants)
* .70 (Percentage Vaccinated) * 26 (Years) 
=  72, 800, 000 vaccinated
infants

Since
the establishment of Vaccine Injury Compensation Program in 1989, 83 cases of
vaccine related autism, all related to MMR, DTP and DTAP Insert Pace Law
Review (Officially denied direct causation) have been compensated.

If
vaccine is the direct cause of these autism cases, then the probability of one
US child develop autism spectrum disorder would be:

83
Cases / 72, 800, 000 vaccinated infants * 100%= 0.000114%

Adding
5000 pending cases related to autism:

5083 Cases / 72, 800, 000 vaccinated infants * 100% =
0.00698%

However,
United States CDC has reported 1 in 68 children in the United States suffers from
autism disorder (Baio, 2010), around 1.47 percent of the children, two hundred
and ten times higher than the hypothetical 0.00698% of claimed vaccine related
autisms. Or in other words, hypothetical claimed vaccine related autism cases
would take less than zero point five percent of the entire autism population.

Money
and time should not be spent on arguing the harmfulness of 1989 versioned
vaccines, but on the better treatment and integration of autistic individuals
in the United States.

Thimerosal
has since been removed from all vaccines but two. And parents should also
realize that vaccine is detoxicated virus and bacteria and should be used with
caution. Modern medicine has advanced greatly since 1989 and I believe the risk
of develop brain diseases should now be drastically reduced.

Comparing
to the odds of contacting diseases without the protection of modern medicine,
the odds of 0.00698% is certainly acceptable. Not to mention researchers have
been proving the non-correlation between vaccines and autism in all scientific
professional publications around the world. 

Limitations
of the Quantitative Analysis

Infant
mortality rate was not included in the quantitative analysis, 5.87/1,000 (2014)

This
quantitative analysis avoided the multi-exposure of vaccine by only account for
the first exposure. This analysis is conducted under the assumption that all
70% has taken the entire 30 vaccine required. However the total vaccinated rate
could only be higher because the individual vaccinated rate is above 90% in
more than 2/3 of the vaccine listed in the 1994-2014 report (CDC 2015) so the
hypothetical 0.00698% of claimed vaccine related autisms would be much lower.
That will not jeopardize the soundness of the analysis.

The
analysis also didn’t include the different age population of autism development
or the following vaccination after the initial exposure. That correlation and
data would need a much more powerful database and algorisms than the resources
at hand.

Conclusion

Research
has shown there could be a possible correlation existed between vaccination and
autism. The general public should not be concerned with the safety of the
vaccination because the risk of developing autism after vaccination is astronomically
insignificant.

 

 

Reference

Baio, J., EDS. (2014). Prevalence of Autism Spectrum Disorder
Among Children Aged 8 Years — Autism and Developmental Disabilities Monitoring
Network, 11 Sites, United States, 2010. Retrieved March 25, 2016, from http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/ss6302a1.htm?s_cid=ss6302a1_w

CDC. (2015). National Immunization Survey. Retrieved March
25, 2016, from http://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/imz-managers/nis/index.html

CDC. (2010). Identified Prevalence of Autism Spectrum
Disorder. Retrieved March 25, 2016, from http://www.cdc.gov/ncbddd/autism/data.html

CDC. (2010). Vaccines Do Not Cause Autism. Retrieved March 25,
2016, from http://www.cdc.gov/vaccinesafety/concerns/autism/

Child Trends: DataBank. (2015, December). Appendix 1 –
Percentage of Children, 19-35 Months of Age, Who Have Been Vaccinated, by
Selected Characteristics: Selected Years, 1994-2014. Retrieved March 25, 2016,
from http://www.childtrends.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/17_appendix1.pdf

Kreesten Meldgaard Madsen, M.D., Anders Hviid, M.Sc., Mogens
Vestergaard, M.D., Diana Schendel, Ph.D., Jan Wohlfahrt, M.Sc., Poul Thorsen,
M.D., Jørn Olsen, M.D., and Mads Melbye, M.D., A Population-Based Study of
Measles, Mumps, and Rubella Vaccination and Autism.N Engl J Med 2002;
347:1477-1482 November 7, 2002. Retrieved Mar 23, 2016, from DOI:
10.1056/NEJMoa021134

McCarthy, J. (2011, May 25). In the Vaccine-Autism Debate,
What Can Parents Believe? Retrieved March 25, 2016, from
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jenny-mccarthy/vaccine-autism-debate_b_806857.html

Mary Holland, Louis Conte, Robert Krakow, and Lisa Colin,
Unanswered Questions from the Vaccine Injury Compensation Program: A Review of
Compensated Cases of Vaccine-Induced Brain Injury, 28 Pace Envtl. L. Rev. 480
(2011) Retrieved March 23, 2016, from
http://digitalcommons.pace.edu/pelr/vol28/iss2/6/

Talylor, G. (2011, May 09). Adventures in Autism. Retrieved
March 25, 2016, from
http://adventuresinautism.blogspot.com/2011/05/next-chapter-in-vaccine-autism-story.html

 

 

 

 

 

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